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DENTON – Concerned about recent reports that Maryland’s structural deficit is projected to be nearly $6 billion by fiscal year 2030, Caroline County leaders are buckling up for a rough ride.
The “State’s fiscal crisis is accelerating,” according to a Nov. 13 report by the Maryland Association of Counties. “(C)ounties may face the brunt of financial shortfalls through reduced State aid and unfunded mandates.”
One of those unfunded mandates is the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future, passed by the Maryland General Assembly in 2021 “to transform public education in the state into a world-class education system … will increase education funding by $3.8 billion each year over the next 10 years,” according to blueprint.marylandpublicschools.org.
At the Caroline County Commission meeting Nov. 19, President Travis Breeding said “tough times may lay ahead,” as a result of fiscal projections the State Department of Legislation Services enumerated in a Nov. 12 “Spending Affordability Briefing” emailed to the three County Commissioners.
The report, issued by the Maryland Department of Legislative Services Office of Policy Analysis, details the headwinds counties will face.
Breeding said the DLS “projects a $299 million deficit in this fiscal year.” If current procurement policies remain, the deficit will “balloon to $2.7 billion in FY26,” and if nothing changes, it climbs to $5.9 billion by fiscal year 2030, “and the spending is mainly on entitlements and education.”
The presidential election may also impact the state coffers, as 8% of Maryland taxpayers are employed by the federal government, and “federal contracts for work performed in Maryland totals $42 billion, and Maryland receives about $19 billion in federal dollars towards the budget that goes into the budget for the state of Maryland,” Breeding said.
“Counties depend on State funding to support vital services like schools, transportation, and public safety,” the MACo report stated. “As Maryland’s budget gap grows, counties may face the brunt of financial shortfalls through reduced State aid and unfunded mandates.”
The report cited factors such as economic weakness, budget challenges, revenue shortfalls, debt and long-term liabilities, dependency on the federal government, and spending pressures.
Among those pressures are entitlements and health services, sharply climbing public employee costs, and the Blueprint, which “will drive education aid costs up by $8.7 billion between 2025 and 2030,” the MACo report stated. “These investments aim to transform the education system, but current revenue levels cannot sustain them without a significant boost.”
According to an appendix to the DLS report, nearly $7.4 million in legislative preauthorizations for the 2025 legislative session are obligated. Included in the list are the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra, $2.5 million; the Bowie Bike Trial, $2.1 million; and the B & O Railroad Museum, $3 million.
As an unfunded mandate, the Blueprint is one of the main pressure points for the county, and the Commissioners have complained in past months about its unclear and shifting funding formula, as well as the delay in informing the counties of it year after year.
Also burdensome is the complex financial accounting school systems must take on. Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions – 23 counties and Baltimore City – comprise separate school districts.
At the Nov. 19 work session of the Caroline County Board of Education, Superintendent Dr. Derek Simmons reported on progress Caroline has made towards fulfilling Pillar 5 of the Blueprint titled Governance and Accountability. According to Blueprint.marylandpublicschools.org, the Accountability Implementation Board (AIB) and Expert Review Teams programs “hold the State and local school systems accountable for Blueprint implementation.”
Although he praised the educational benefits of the Blueprint, Simmons and his staff are navigating a complex formula state leaders have imposed on school districts. The Blueprint is “a great theoretical model,” Simmons said. “The implementation piece is the challenge.”
Given the lack of firm guidance from the state and the pressing need to move forward, the district is moving ahead with “loose guidance – two versions of it,” he said.
Simmons and board staff have started working with West Ed consultants, fully grant-funded through the AIB. Two West Ed consultants are helping CCPS design a finance structure aligned with state expectations. Since 75% of district funds must follow students at the school level by fiscal year 2027, the accounting system requires a complicated restructuring.
Simmons announced that the district has purchased the cloud-based software finance “solution” Allovue for $30,000, “well within” the district’s budget threshold and “well worth what it’s going to allow us to do.” The software is a product of Power School, already employed by the system. It’s more user-friendly and will allow board staff to run models and test different allocation scenarios.
The Blueprint is fully funded in fiscal 2026 and 2027, but Simmons is concerned about the state’s $2.7 billion budget shortfall by 2026, as the temptation may be to rob from the Blueprint to pay for other priorities.
“I expect to be very active during the legislative session, and I think all of us need to work together to use our voices over some of this,” he said. “They just need to keep their hands off the Blueprint for Caroline County to continue what we're doing, and to make things right there (in Annapolis). We shouldn't have to pay because of their overspending.”
At the Commission’s morning meeting, Vice President Larry Porter said, “the realization is coming very soon that the Blueprint is unsustainable” for the counties and the state.
“And somewhere along the line, somebody's going to have to admit – and I don't know who it's going to be or when it's going to be –somebody's going to have to admit that this was a bad idea,” he said.
According to the MACo report, the “overall outlook is grim.”
“Maryland’s fiscal crisis, fueled by economic stagnation and soaring expenses, demands bold, long-term reforms,” the report stated. “Counties must prepare for a challenging road ahead, advocating to protect critical funding while managing increased demands and shrinking resources.”
Porter said the Maryland General Assembly, which will run from noon, Wednesday, Jan. 8, to Monday, April 7, will be “very, very interesting.”
“We'll have to ride the storm, but it's going to be bad,” Porter said. “Everybody that I talk to is just saying, buckle up, because it's getting bad.”
Click here to read the MACo report
Click here to read the 72-page Spending Affordability Briefing
